Windows by the numbers: Finally, the 7-to-10 migration kicks into high gear

 

A month after Windows users took a break from dumping Windows 7 for Windows 10, in July they put shoulders to various wheels and … shoved.

According to web metrics vendor Net Applications, Windows 7’s share of all personal computers plunged precipitously last month, falling 3.6 percentage points – the second-largest amount in a single month for the aged OS – to end July at 31.8%. Meanwhile, Windows 7’s portion of only those PCs running Windows also plummeted, falling to 36%, a number not seen since late 2011 when the operating system was barely two years old and busily nibbling away at Windows XP.

(The second number is larger than the first because Windows does not power every PC; in July, Windows ran 88.5% of the world’s machines. All but a tiny fraction of the rest ran macOS, Linux or Chrome OS.)

At the same time, Windows 10’s share jumped by 3.1 percentage points to 48.9% of all personal computers and 55.2% of those running Windows. The monthly increase was the second-largest ever for Windows 10 (first place went to March 2019), while both percentages were records for the OS.

So, did millions suddenly drop Windows 7 and switch to Windows 10? (Net Applications’ data and Computerworld‘s calculations pegged the leaving-Windows-7 number at 61 million, the moving-to-Windows-10 number at 51 million.) Unclear. The change rate wasn’t implausible – other measurements have gone up, or down, just as dramatically and been proven to be accurate if not exact – and the time before Windows 7 falls off the support list is very short.

Earlier hints of Windows 10 acceleration were telling

Last month, Computerworld highlighted the quickening of Windows 10 growth by showing the difference between the 6- and 12-month averages. The sudden addition of another 3+ points in July only skewed the numbers further toward that acceleration. Also telling are the new forecasts that July’s Windows 10 upswing – and Windows 7’s downturn – generated.

Windows 7’s future – based, as always, on the operating system’s 12-month average change – must now be more palatable to Microsoft, which earlier had to have been concerned about the operating system’s stubbornness. Computerworld‘s latest calculation says that in January 2020, when Windows 7 exits support, its user share should stand at 30.7%, a whole five points lower than our prognostication of the month before. That’s a lot fewer PCs stranded without security updates.

Meanwhile, Windows 10 should account for approximately 62% of all Windows installations when the older OS drops off support, an increase of four points from the month-ago forecast. A year later – January 2021 – Windows 7 and Windows 10 will be at 20% and 76%, respectively.

Of special note is that the 30.7% currently forecast as Windows 7’s user share at support expiration is very close to the 29% of all Windows PCs running Windows XP five years ago when it left support. For the last two years, the comparison between Windows XP’s actual vanishing act and Windows 7’s predicted performance always put the latter in the worst light; the data proclaimed that users were reluctant to give up Windows 7.

Not in July. In July, millions apparently didn’t need anyone to pry the 10-year-old OS from their cold hands. They gave it up without a fight.

Windows by the numbers: June 2019

Apparently, just six months before Windows 7 hits retirement, users decided to take a break from migrating to the latest shiny, Windows 10.

According to web metrics company Net Applications, anyway.

The chances that everyone pressed Pause in June are about the same as pocketing a million from a scratch-it. In other words, highly unlikely. But that’s what Net Applications claimed Monday.

Windows 7’s share of all personal computers barely budged in June, remaining at 35.4%, and its portion of the PCs running Windows stayed put at 40.1%. (The second number was significantly larger than the first because Windows does not power every personal computer; in June, Windows ran 88.3% of the world’s machines. All but a miniscule fraction of the rest ran macOS, Linux or Chrome OS.)

Meanwhile, Windows 10’s numbers were almost as immune to change. The operating system’s share of all PCs reached 45.8%, an increase of less than one-tenth of a percentage point. Windows 10’s share of Windows PCs did not move at all, sticking with 51.8%. (The stubbornness of the share of Windows overall was an artifact of rounding.)

So, what’s going on? Did Windows users, especially commercial customers tasked with getting off Windows 7 before security updates dry up, really stop doing — what they’d done the month before — upgrading from 7 to 10?

Who knows? As Computerworld has noted numerous times when discussing analytics data that tries (pretends, some would argue) to reveal Microsoft’s secrets, the whole process can be an impenetrable black box. Everything must be inferred, whether X gained when Y declined, or in this case, movement stalled.

It may simply be the data itself; Net Applications has visibility only on sites it monitors for clients. Its user share numbers are extrapolations at best, and so far from definitive to be laughable. But failing Microsoft’s own data — which it has, thanks to the telemetry embedded within Windows — it’s the best outsiders have. (Virtually every estimate of OS or browser share is based on the same principles used by Net Applications.)

What’s important, as always, is to keep an eye on the longer-term trends. If any of this is worthwhile, it’s the over-time movements of an OS. That’s why, even in a month which stumps easy analysis, Net Applications’ Windows numbers can provide insight.

Windows 10 still accelerates

By Net Applications’ numbers, Windows 10’s growth still shows signs of speeding up. The average per-month change over the past 12 months has been +0.84 of a percentage point. But over the last 6 months, the average climbed to +1.1 points, representing an increase of about 24%.

However, Windows 7’s decline has not kept pace. Rather than accelerate, it has slowed. While Windows 7’s average per-month movement over the last 12 months has been -0.53 percentage points, the 6-month average was only -0.25 points, or less than half. If Windows 7’s fall was speeding up, the 6-month average decline should be larger not smaller than the 12-month.

That’s why Windows 7’s forecast — based, as always, on the operating system’s 12-month average change — now pegs its January 2020 user share at 35.7%, nearly half a point higher than the prognostication of the month before. (Windows 7 will exit support Jan. 14, 2020.) That’s a lot of PCs destined to go without security updates.

Meanwhile, Windows 10 should stand at about 58% of all Windows installations when the older OS drops off support, a decrease of approximately two points from the early-June forecast. A year later — January 2021 — Windows 7 and Windows 10 will be at 28.5% and 69.5%, respectively.

Elsewhere in Net Applications’ June reporting, the user share of macOS slipped by more than a tenth of a percentage point to 9.2%, the lowest mark for Apple’s desktop operating system in over a year. macOS has lost user share for three straight months. Linux’s user share climbed by almost two-tenths of a point to 2.1%, while Google’s Chrome OS stayed flat at 0.4%.

Credit: Gregg Keizer, Computerworld